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Climate change

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In the list below, icons of PDFs, Word documents and report covers will, where available, link to the relevant report/information. Links within the text will also link to relevant webpages as well as to PDFs etc.

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the definitive source of information on climate change – published its AR4 2007 synthesis report on 17 November 2007. This combines the findings of the first three reports (the physical science basis; impacts and adaptation; mitigation), all of which are also available on the IPCC website in full and summary version.

The available stages of the report are:

Working Group I Report: The Physical Science basis
See here for the full report.

Working Group II Report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
See here for the full report.

Working Group III Report: Mitigation of Climate Change
See here for the full report (pre-copy edit version).

Working Group IV Synthesis Report.
See here for more details.

The Stern Review examines the financial, human and other costs of failing to tackle climate change and concludes that this could amount to trillions of pounds, equivalent to shrinking the global economy by a fifth by 2050.

An FCRN summary is available here.

Supplementary documents released after the publication of the report can be found here.

Added: 04.06.08  New report by Stern – Proposals for global deal on climate change

Nicholas Stern has published a set of proposals for a global deal on climate change. The report analyses the implications of the commitment to cut global greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2050 (taken at the G8 summit in Heiligendamm in June 2007). This translates into a CO2e concentration of about 500ppm (lower than the original 550 used in the Stern Review).

An FCRN summary is available here.

You can read the press release here and download the report here.

Defra logo graphic The DEFRA website has general facts and figures on the UK and climate change plus useful weblinks. Search under Global Atmosphere and follow the links.
Added: 01.05.08  Carbon Trust winter lecture: Dr Rajendra Pachauri

On 17 January 2008, the Carbon Trust Winter Lecture was delivered in London by Dr Pachauri, Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Dr Pachauri gave his views on a wide range of climate change issues, including the recent Bali conference and the leadership that he sees the UK and its businesses offering to climate change mitigation around the world. You can listen to the lecture here.

Added: 27.11.07  Climate Change: Everyone’s Business

This report, published in 2007 by the Confederation of British Industry. says that we need a much greater sense of urgency if the UK is to meet its reduction targets, that the next 2-3 years are critical, that a failure to rise to the challenge will be economically damaging and that ‘business needs to incorporate climate change policies into its DNA.’

Click to open PDF of this report

Added: 12.11.07 

UNEP Global Environment Outlook 4

The United Nations Environment Programme's fourth Outlook report (November 2007) finds that major threats to the planet such as climate change, the rate of extinction of species, and the challenge of feeding a growing population are among the many that remain unresolved, and all of them put humanity at risk. It salutes the world's progress in tackling some relatively straightforward problems, with the environment now much closer to mainstream politics everywhere. But despite these advances, there remain the harder-to-manage issues, the ‘persistent’ problems. The report states: ‘There are no major issues raised in Our Common Future [the 1987 Brundtland Report] for which the foreseeable trends are favourable.’ Failure to address these persistent problems, UNEP says, may undo all the achievements so far on the simpler issues, and may threaten humanity's survival. But it insists: ‘The objective is not to present a dark and gloomy scenario, but an urgent call for action.’

The report singles out climate change as a ‘global priority,’ demanding political will and leadership. Yet it finds ‘a remarkable lack of urgency,’ and a ‘woefully inadequate’ global response. Other major areas of concern are: water, fish and biodiversity.

Read the press release here.

Click to open PDF of this report

Added: 30.9.07 

The Climate Change Levy and Climate Change Agreements

The purpose of this report, which was published in August 2007 by the National Audit Office for the House of Commons Environment Audit Committee, is to understand and consider:

  • new results from the Agreements, as reported in Summer 2007;
  • the effectiveness of these two policies as a whole (CCA and CCL); and
  • their future role in combating climate change.

The report concludes that while the levy and CCAs have been effective in encouraging businesses to improve their energy efficiency, they have delivered fewer emissions cuts than anticipated. It estimates that by 2010, the levy will have delivered emissions savings of 3.5MtC, while the CCAs will have delivered only 1.9MtC. In 2004, the targets under the CCAs had been tightened so they would deliver 2.9MtC. The NAO urges the EAC to look into tightening the targets for the final period of the agreements.

Added: 28.03.08 

Climate Change Levy and Agreements: report by the Environmental Audit Committee

The Environmental Audit Committee has published its assessment of the effectiveness of the Climate Change Levy and Agreements. Among other things it says that the ‘Climate Change Levy has not worked as originally planned -particularly for less energy intensive firms and SMEs. While concerned by the weaknesses of the Levy, we welcome the fact that the Government has not ignored these problems. In responding to the recommendations of the Carbon Trust by bringing forward plans for the Carbon Reduction Commitment, the Government is targeting some of the sectors for which the Levy has proved less effective. This shows a commendable flexibility of approach and ability to learn through doing.’

On the CCAs it says ‘ We recommend that the Government reform the Climate Change Agreements to express all targets in the form of absolute reductions in carbon emissions. This would help to align CCAs with the EU ETS and CRC, and with national carbon budgets; and be relatively straightforward to introduce. We appreciate the concerns expressedm about this idea by some business groups, but do not agree with the suggestion from the CBI that some CCA sectors should be allowed room for “efficient growth in emissions”: any sector of the economy whose emissions are allowed to rise exacerbates the problem and increases the pressure on all others to cut theirs.’

You can download it here.

Click to open the PDF of this report

Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change

Published by Defra, this report gives an account of recent developments on the science of climate change, explores how much climate change is too much and how can we avoid it. It examines the consequences of different levels of climate change in terms of impacts for different sectors and regions, as well as for the world as a whole. It also considers technological options that can be used to achieve different levels of climate change as the world moves to a lower carbon economy. The book builds on scientific findings presented at the Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference, which took place in February 2005. Presentations from the conference can be viewed here.

  The Encyclopedia of the Atmospheric Environment website has been written as an educational resource and for those without a specific environmental science background provides excellent clear summaries on a huge range of topics from radiative forcing to the workings of the monsoon.
  The Environmental Literacy Council is a useful website with background on the science of climate change and the history of climate change policy. It's a US website so many of its links are US focused.
Click to open PDF The European Environment Agency published its latest report on the state of the European environment on November 2005: State and outlook 2005 (State of Environment report No 1/2005)
Click to go to the GHG website GHGonline is another useful source of information on climate change. It provides a clear overview of climate change science and issues and highlights relevant climate change news, new scientific papers/publications and so forth.
  www.greenfacts.org provides good information on climate change.
Click to go to to the Hadley Centre report The Hadley Centre's Stabilising climate to avoid dangerous climate change shows possible results of rapid changes in components of the climate system, and discusses some of the uncertainties in deducing tolerable concentrations and emissions and how these might be managed.
Graphic logo of the NFU The National Farmers' Union's climate change pages report press coverage of climate change and have information on climate related NFU events and seminars.
Click to go to the SCIDEV website www.scidev.net is a useful website with information and articles on climate change - you can register to receive weekly alerts.
Click to go to teh UKCIP website The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) provides general information about climate change. It also provides more specific information on the potential impacts of climate change in the different UK regions. In addition it has produced a set of scenarios presenting four different descriptions of how climate may change in the UK, based on four different emission scenarios.

In October 2005 UKCIP launched their monthly Climate Digest – a resource monitoring the latest research developments in climate change impacts and adaptation.

Click to go to the Warwick HRI website Warwick HRI is performing a wide range of climate change research with the aim of identifying the problems, providing the solutions and recognising the opportunities of a changing climate for agriculture and the rural landscape.

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Added: 19.08.08 EEA reports on progress in greenhouse gas emissions reductions in 2006

According to the European Environment Agency, EU GHGs fell slightly between 2005 and 2006. Overall emissions within the EU-27 fell by 14 million tonnes (0.3 %) and now stand 7.7 % below 1990 levels. Total emissions in the European Union were slightly more than 5.1 billion tonnes in 2006.

The main contributor to the decrease was lower consumption of gas and oil in households and services, which accounted for emission cuts of 16.6 million tonnes, particularly in Belgium, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. This was a result of reduced heating needs in Europe due to a warmer year in 2006, together with higher gas prices. Electricity demand remained largely stable in households.Emissions from road transport continued to grow, releasing 6.5 million tonnes of CO2 or 0.7 % more than in 2005. The rise was mostly driven by increased use of diesel for freight and passenger transport. Emissions of greenhouse gases from international aviation and shipping activities continued to rise sharply in 2006. Contributions from these sectors, currently not included under the Kyoto Protocol, rose by nearly 5 million tonnes (aviation) and 10 million tonnes (international shipping).

Agriculture contributed 9% to overall emissions, both for the EU-15 and for the EU-27.

You can download the report here.

Added: 08.08.08 Global CO2 increase of 3% on last year

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has produced a new report showing that global CO2 emissions have increased by 3.1% in the last year. China’s emissions grew by 8% and accounted for two thirds of the overall increase. China now tops the with an 8% national increase, China’s CO2 emissions accounted for two thirds of last year’s global carbon dioxide increase of 3.1%. China’s CO2 emissions are now estimated to be about 14% higher than those from the USA. With this, China tops the list of CO2 emitting countries, having about a quarter share in global CO2 emissions (24%), followed by the USA (21%), the EU-15 (12%), India (8%) and the Russian Federation (6%). Together, they comprise 71% of the total of global CO2 emissions. The figures are based on a preliminary estimate, using recently published BP (British Petroleum) energy data and cement production data for 2007.

You can download the report and press release here.

Added: 09.07.08 Emissions rise under EU Emissions Trading Scheme

Overall emissions of CO2 from businesses in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) increased by 0.68% in 2007 when adjusted for changes in the number of installations covered, according to the information provided by Member State registries. While well below the 2.8% growth in the EU's Gross Domestic Product recorded last year, the slight increase in emissions underlines the need for the tighter emission caps that have been set for the 2008–2012 trading period. For more information see here.

Added: 28.03.08 New UK GHG emissions figures

Britain's climate change emissions may be 12% higher than officially stated, according to a new National Audit Office report which criticises the government for using two different carbon accounting systems. There is "insufficient consistency and coordination" in the government's approach, the NAO said.

Using one system, which the government presents to the UN and in public (its official Greenhouse Gas Inventory), Britain emitted 656m tonnes of CO2 in 2005, and claims an improvement on 1990 figures. However, the lesser-known but more accurate data in the government's national environmental accounts show emissions to be in the region of 733m tonnes in 2005, a NAO report says today.

You can read the National Audit Office report here or see the Guardian’s coverage of it here.

Added: 07.02.08 UK GHG emissions statistics

Figures released by Defra on 31 January 2008 show that the UK’s carbon dioxide emissions “stayed virtually the same” in 2006, dropping by just 0.1% to 554.5 million tonnes CO2. Overall greenhouse gases fell by 0.5% on the year before.

Emissions from the domestic sector fell by 5% while those from business dropped 1.5%. But CO2 emission from the energy supply sector rose 1.5% and from transport by 1.3%. Between 1990 and 2006, emissions from aviation have more than doubled. While emissions from domestic flights fell by 2.8%, this was cancelled out by a 1.5% rise in emissions from international aviation, due to more flights, but these are excluded from the figures.

Friends of the Earth said the figures would be 6% higher if emissions from international flights were included, which it estimates at 35 million tonnes in 2006. It urged the government to include these emissions in the Climate Change Bill (passing through the House of Lords in early 2008).

For more information see the Defra news release here, or its statistics page.

Added: 25.01.08

Cool Farming:Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential

This report, published by Greenpeace International was written by researchers from the University of Aberdeen. It puts agriculture’s global contribution to GHG emissions at 17 and 32% of all human-induced GHG emissions, including land use changes.

However, it also says that agriculture has a significant climate change mitigation potential, which could change the position of agriculture from the second largest emitter to a much smaller emitter or even a net sink. Mitigation options fall into the following categories:

  • Cropland management
  • Grazing management
  • Restoration of organic soils
  • Water and rice management
  • Land use change, agroforestry, set aside etc
  • More efficient fertiliser manafacture
  • Eating fewer meat and dairy products

See here for the full report.

Added: 16.01.08

UK carbon emissions have risen not fallen

Measuring progress towards carbon reduction in the UK, published by Angela Druckman et al of Surrey University (Druckman A, Bradley P, Papathanasopoulou E, Jackson T. Ecological Economics (2007) shows that that the accounting convention chosen for reporting carbon emissions radically changes the conclusions that may be drawn about UK's progress towards its carbon reduction targets.

According to the UNFCCC reporting convention, carbon emissions fell by 5.6% between 1990 (the Kyoto base year) and 2004. However if calculations are based on figures produced in the UK Environmental Accounts, which additionally account for aviation and shipping emissions (excluded from the UNFCCC convention), the picture is less clear. On this basis, progress towards the Kyoto target appears to be almost wiped out, with carbon emissions having risen by 0.3% over the time period. More significantly, when emissions are estimated according to the consumption perspective, (which the report authors take to be the more appropriate approach), it appears that emissions have risen by 8% over the same time span. The UK's carbon trade balance has also risen from 1% in 1990 to 8% in 2004.The paper also emphasises very strongly the lack of published economic datasets for the UK which provides a major source of uncertainties.

This paper’s findings make the some of the same points as the entry below by Dieter Helm.

Added: 16.01.08 UK GHG emissions – we’re exporting the problem

The UK has only managed to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by exporting them to other countries, according to research by Dieter Helm, a government advisor and professor at Oxford University. Including emissions from imported goods and international transport, its emissions have risen by a fifth since 1990.

Professor Helm argues that important sources such as international transport and tourism are omitted from the UK emissions inventory. If they were included, emissions would have fallen by just 11.9% since 1990, rather than by 15.3% as official figures claim. But he thinks that even this figure underestimates UK emissions. Adding the emissions “embedded” in imported products would mean emissions have actually risen by 19%.

Helm calculated how much carbon was embedded in products imported into the UK by multiplying the monetary value of imports by the carbon intensity of the originating country’s economy measured in tonnes of CO2e per million dollars of GDP. He then subtracted the carbon embedded in UK exports from the overall import footprint to calculate that the UK’s “trade deficit in greenhouse gases” was 341MtCO2e in 2006 – equivalent to around half of the UK’s measured direct emissions. The findings suggests that the UK is responsible for a significant chunk of the growth in emissions in trading partners such as China and India since 1990, with implications for the allocation of greenhouse gas reduction goals in a post-2012 international climate agreement. It strengthens the case for developed countries to take on a greater share of the burden to cut global emissions.

Added: 16.01.08 Food related GHG emissions in France

French consultant, Jean-Marc Jancovici, has quantified the contribution of food to GHG emissions in France and comes to the conclusion that the contribution is a little over 30%. More information is available here.

Added: 6.11.07 CO2 levels rising faster than expected

Levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have increased faster than expected during the past few years, according to an international team of scientists who attribute the sharp rise in CO2 levels to three factors.

Since 2000, a growing global economy, an increase in the carbon emissions required to produce each unit of economic activity, and a decreasing efficiency of carbon sinks on land and in oceans have combined to produce the most rapid seven-year increase in atmospheric CO2 since the beginning of continuous atmospheric monitoring in 1959. The research findings are published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA (PNAS).

Read coverage of the findings here.

Added: 6.11.07

80% Challenge: Delivering a low-carbon UK

The IPPR, and RSPB have published their joint report on the feasibility and costs of achieving an 80% cut in carbon emissions in the UK by 2050, based on modelling from Imperial College and the PSI (using the models developed for the Stern Review and the Energy White Paper). The report includes international aviation emissions, and environmental safeguards on the form of limits on first generation biofuels. It says that achieving an 80% target is feasible, even excluding new nuclear build in the power sector. Costs are in the region of 2-3% of GDP by 2050. The IPPR is also publishing separately a more detailed report on the same material, with more policy context, called 2050 Vision, available on the IPPR website.

Read the press release and download both the 80% Challenge and the 2050 Vision reports, here.

Added: 11.10.07 Carbon Disclosure Project report

The Carbon Disclosure Project has published its latest survey of the FT top 500 companies listed globally. 77% of FT500 companies and a total of 1,300 corporations answered the fifth CDP request in 2007, a large increase on the 45% of FT500 companies and 235 corporations that answered the first request in 2002.

For info: the Carbon Disclosure Project provides a coordinating secretariat and innovative forum for investor and corporate collaboration on climate change. Based on answers to its annual questionnaire, CDP provides the investment community with information about corporations’ greenhouse gas emissions and climate change management strategies.

As regards food companies, about 42 per cent of those in the food and drugs retailing sector responding to the survey said they had a CO2 emissions reduction programme in place. About 30 per cent of food manufacturers said they had one. According to the CDP however, the major dairy company Danone seemed to show a lack of concern about the growing regulatory and consumer demand that companies reduce their manufacturing impact on the environment. "Danone replied 'none' to questions about regulatory risks associated with climate change," according to the CDP.

You can download the report here . To view GHG emissions and trends for the food sector, see p133 of the full report.

Click to open the PDF of this report

Added: 6.9.07 
A new report by Cambridge Econometrics predicts that the UK will fail to meet its carbon dioxide emissions reduction target for 2020. The forecasts indicate that UK CO2 emissions will amount to 136.3 million tonnes of carbon in 2020, just 15% lower than they were in 1990. The draft Climate Change Bill has set a goal of cutting emissions by between 26% and 32% by 2020. The forecasts also suggest that the UK will miss its renewable electricity targets for 2010 and 2015 by a wide margin.
Click to open the PDF of this report The EU has published a series of energy scenarios exploring future energy use and CO2 emissions to 2050 - World Energy Technology Outlook – 2050. According to the reference scenario, world energy use is predicted to more than double, as will global CO2 emissions. Two alternative scenarios are modelled - the 'carbon constraint case' and the 'hydrogen case.' These look at what things might look like and what technologies might need to be deployed to keep the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere down to 500 ppm (nb - still higher than the 'safe' level of 450 ppm).

Read the press release here.

  According to researchers at the University of Bern, Switzerland, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have risen 200 times faster over the past 50 years than at any other time during the past 650,000 years. This is true also of methane: during this period, levels hovered around 600 parts per billion. Today's atmospheric methane concentration is well over 1,700. Reported in Nature, November 2005.

Added: 25.10.07 

Click to open the PDF of this report

 

The Environment in Your Pocket 2006

This Defra publication provides general facts and figures on the UK environment. Information on energy use / CO2 relating to food include can be found on pages 16, 17 and 18. Specifically climate change related charts (eg.Temperature changes, sea level rises, GHG emission trends) can be found on pages 24–28.

For GHG emission figures (that may be more regularly updated than the booklet) see the Key facts and e-Digest pages on the Defra website.

Click to open the PDF of this report The European Community's initial report under the Kyoto Protocol establishes the assigned amount of emissions permitted for Europe under the Kyoto Protocol for the period 2008-2012. It also contains an inventory of EU emissions in aggregate, on an individual country basis and by industry sector.

This report contains the Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2004 and inventory report 2006 (Technical report No 6/2006), which is also available here. It presents greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2004 by individual Member State and by economic sector. The report shows that, between 2003 and 2004, emissions in the 15 pre-2004 Member States increased by 11.5 million tonnes, or 0.3% and total EU emissions increased by 0.4%.

See also the EEA website and the Statistics section on this website.

Added: 6.9.07  The 2007 annual submission of the greenhouse gas inventory of the European Community to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was published in September 2007. It presents greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2005 by individual Member State and by economic sector. The report shows that between 2004 and 2005 emissions in the 15 pre-2004 Member States decreased by 35.2 million tonnes or 0.8 % and total EU-27 emissions decreased by 0.7 %. EU-15 emissions in 2005 were 2 % below base year levels under the Kyoto Protocol and EU-27 emission were 7.9 % below 1990 levels.

You can read the report here.

Click to open the PDF of this report The EEA report: Climate change and a European low-carbon energy system (EEA Report No1/2005) presents an assessment of possible greenhouse gas emission reduction pathways made feasible by global action and a transition to a low-carbon energy system in Europe by 2030. It analyses trends and projections for emissions of greenhouse gases and the development of underlying trends in the energy sector. It also describes the actions that could bring about the transition to a low-carbon energy system in the most cost-effective way.
  In a piece on climate change by James Lovelock (the originator of the Gaia hypothesis) in The Independent (16/1/06), the author warns that climate change has already passed the point of no return. "The worst will happen and survivors will have to adapt to a hell of a climate". Click here for the full article.

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Added: 26.03.08  GHG land and farming calculator launched

The Country Land and Business Association and Savills plc have launched a new free web-based calculator to enable farmers and land managers to work out their carbon (actually GHG) accounts.

The calculator calculates emissions from direct on farm activities (livestock and soil emissions, machinery use), indirect emissions (eg. true GHG emissions from electricity) and other indirect emissions (eg. Feed and fertiliser inputs). It deducts emissions from carbon sequestereed in forests and trees. You can read the press release here, and find links to the calculator itself here.

Click to open PDF For a study looking specifically at methane, its role in climate change, and the options for emission reductions see Methane UK, published by the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the University of Oxford. This report discusses methane emissions from a range of sectors, including from agriculture and landfill (particularly biodegradable matter). Agriculture is estimated to account for 43% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions and landfill a further 22%.
Click to open PDF Carbon UK, also from the ECI deals specifically with carbon flows, bringing together into one coherent picture information on the different flows of carbon in the UK. These flows originate from a wide variety of sources including the use of fossil fuels, natural cycles, landfill, and agriculture. The range is considerable and varied and is investigated within the context of the waste we produce and which goes to landfill.
Click to open a PDF of this report For an analysis of nitrogen flows through the UK economy see Nitrogen UK. The report notes: 'Of the 3.4Mt reactive nitrogen that we either create or produce per annum, over 1Mt is returned to the environment without any benefit being realised from it.'

Note that nitrous oxide, which results from a range of industrial and agricultural processes contributes 7% to the UK's greenhouse gas emissions (expressed in terms of CO2 equivalents) and agriculture contributes to about two thirds of these emissions. In its conclusions the report notes: 'The agriculture industry has a large responsibility for nitrogen in the UK since years of [fertiliser] use has built up a reservoir in soil and water…' It also says: 'In the UK and Europe as a whole, nitrogen fertiliser use appears to have reduced or at least stabilised. However this is not because we have recognised and taken responsibility for our use of nitrogen fertiliser; it is because we have moved the problem elsewhere. We now import far more of our food than we did in the past. Nitrogen is as much a global problem, as a regional problem.'

  The studies above are funded through the Biffaward scheme as part of its Mass Balance Programme. Specifically relevant reports include:
  • Glass manufacture (from a packaging perspective)
  • Food and drink processing
  • Agricultural waste
  • Pig industry
  • Poultry industry

Often the reports (eg the pig and poultry ones) are written from an industry perspective.

See the Waste section on this site for more information.

Click to open PDF In 2006 the Scottish Executive published its Review of Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Emissions, Air Pollution Impacts and Economics of Biomass Production and Consumption in Scotland, Environmental Research Report 2006/02, Scottish Executive.
Click to open PDF The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) was set up in 2000. It represents a coalition of global investors who together have more than $31.5 trillion in assets.

Through the CDP, these investors collectively request the world's largest companies to disclose information on the greenhouse gas emissions they produce. CDP has historically sent this request for information to the FT500 largest companies in the world. In 2006, however, in its fourth round of information-requests, the CDP has expanded its reach to 2,180 companies, over 950 of whom have responded with an answered questionnaire.

In the PDF you will find information on the world's largest food and drink manufacturers - see pages 94-97 inclusive as well as on all the other major sectors. Interestingly, Coca-Cola is, by orders of magnitude the greatest emitter in the food and drink sector. Pepsi might be too but since it didn't choose to disclose information, it's hard to know.

For the details of smaller non-FT 500 companies, search the CDP website.

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Added: 25.01.08  Climate change: the cost of inaction and the cost of adaptation

The future economic costs of climate change – known as the costs of inaction – will be significant in Europe, says a new European Environment Agency (EEA) report. The report looks at the economic costs of climate change impacts at a European level. These costs are increasingly shaping the climate policy debate but the report highlights the fact that methodological issues and uncertainties remain in cost estimation. Download the report here.

Added: 25.01.08  Impact of climate change on the marine environment

The Marine Climate Impacts Partnership has published its latest annual report card. The report card aims to address/summarise the following:

  • What is the current state of scientific understanding of marine climate change in our oceans and seas?
  • What changes have been observed and what could happen in the future?
  • How much of this is hard fact and how much is interpretation?

A few key observations are as follows:

  • 2006 was the second warmest year for UK coastal waters since records began in 1870; with seven of the 10 warmest years in the last decade.
  • Warmer winters have been strongly linked to reduced breeding success and survival in some seabird populations.
  • Models predict fewer storms in future but there will be increased numbers of severe storms.
  • Coastal erosion and flooding is expected to increase.
  • The impacts of climate change on the commercial services provided by our seas will be significant. Sea-level rise, coastal flooding, storms and bigger waves will affect ports, shipping and built structures. Fishing and fish farming will be affected by temperature change and plankton (prey) availability.

Specifically on fish: The impact of climate change on commercial and other fish stocks is not yet clear but may be influenced by temperature rises, increased ocean acidity (due to more CO2 dissolved in water). Observations of trends to date state with medium confidence that excessive fishing pressure over many decades may have resulted in fish populations less able to ‘buffer’ against occasional poor year classes and the impacts of natural climate variability. Distribution shifts and modifications of fish behaviour as a result of temperature changes, may be affecting the vulnerability of certain fish stocks to fishing fleets.

As for the future it is possible to state this (with medium confidence): In the short term, climate change will have little influence on fish stock recovery, which depends instead upon reducing fishing effort to allow existing year classes to survive to maturity. Long-term climate change may affect the overall productivity of fish stocks in a given area. Some species may be adversely affected leading to reductions in sustainable yield whilst others, for example seabass, red mullet and John Dory, may be positively affected leading to enhanced fishing opportunities.

  In May 2007, the Department of Health published Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK, which updates a previous document published in 2001/2. It looks at a range of impacts and their possible implications for health including:
  • heatwaves and higher average temperatures
  • floods, storms etc
  • vector borne diseases (eg. malaria - apparently very unlikely)
  • food borne disease
  • water borne disease
  • air pollution
  • ground level UV

To read the report and for for details of how to comment see here.

  Climate change may not be good news for the Californian wine industry, according to this paper published in the open-access journal PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America). California is the UK's third largest source of wine after Australia (no 1) and France (no 2). Here's an extract from the paper

'…we estimate that potential premium winegrape production area in the conterminous United States could decline by up to 81% by the late 21st century. While increases in heat accumulation will shift wine production to warmer climate varieties and/or lower-quality wines, and frost constraints will be reduced, increases in the frequency of extreme hot days (>35°C) in the growing season are projected to eliminate winegrape
production in many areas of the United States. Furthermore, grape and wine production will likely be restricted to a narrow West Coast region and the Northwest and Northeast, areas currently facing challenges related to excess moisture.'

  Scientists at the University of Wisconsin have published a map in the journal Nature (Nature 438, 310-317 (17 November 2005) Impact of regional climate change on human health, Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Hollowa T and Foley, JA) showing that the worst effects of climate change will be felt in the poorest and least polluting countries.

An FCRN summary is available here.

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Added: 25.01.08  Encouraging greener living in the UK – Defra publishes public attitudes research

DEFRA has published a framework to encourage environmentally friendly behaviour among individuals and communities. The report pulls together evidence on public understanding, attitudes and behaviours and draws conclusions on the potential for behaviour change among members of the public. It identifies 12 headline behaviour goals based on a range of low/high impact and easy/hard behaviours which could potentially engage large numbers of people and others which would be more appropriate for targeting particular population groups. These are:

  • use more efficient vehicles
  • use your car less for short trips
  • avoid unnecessary short haul flights
  • use water responsibly
  • install insulation / microgeneration
  • manage your energy usage
  • recycle more
  • waste less food
  • buy energy efficient products
  • eat more food that is locally in season
  • adopt a lower impact diet.

The report also looks at people's willingness to act on these headline goals. The results indicate that there are some behaviours, such as wasting less food and more responsible water usage, where most people are already willing and, in principle, able to act. The more challenging behaviours, such as avoiding unnecessary flights or installing microgeneration for electricity, are those where there is relatively low willingness to act, or where there are external barriers to action. The research on which the behaviour goals are based can be found here.

Added: 30.9.07 

Warm Words II: How the climate story is evolving and the lessons we can learn for encouraging public action, published in 2007 by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) revisits research that the IPPR published last year which examined the public discourse of climate change in the UK; this report highlights what has changed since the 2006 publication. The report looks at language around climate change both in the national media (newspapers, television etc) and in the local press.

You can read the report here.

Added: 13.8.07  Tipping point or turning point? Social marketing & climate change published in 2007 by Ipsos-Mori explores the public's perspectives on climate change: how they think and behave in relation to the issue and what their values and aspirations are. It looks at whether there we are seeing any signs of a transition to low carbon lifestyles, examines the complex issues that behaviour change policy has to engage with and the role that social marketing could play.

The report can be ordered free here.

Added: 13.8.07  What assures consumers on climate change? published in 2007 by AccountAbility and Consumers International, also looks at consumer attitudes to climate change and to their role in tackling it through changes in behaviour. Like the Ipsos-Mori report, it finds a gulf between expressed concern for climate change and the actual taking of action. It also finds that consumers place little consumer trust in business action on climate change and that independent assurance on products is wanted. The report concludes that focusing efforts mainly on consumer facing initiatives will not achieve sufficient change and that a mixture of voluntary and mandatory standard setting and policies is needed.

You can download the report here.

  Defra has published a number of studies resulting from its 2005-2006 cross-cutting research programme on Pro-Environmental Behaviour Change (online at the Behaviour Change Forum). Several studies were commissioned as part of this programme, each with a remit to explore a particular aspect of pro-environmental behaviour change. A summary of the main study under taken by the University of Westminster and entitled Promoting Pro-Environmental Behaviour: Existing Evidence to Inform Better Policy Making can be downloaded as can a number of supplementary papers.
Click to open the PDF of this report In May the DTI published Renewable Energy Attitudes and Awareness Research which examines people's awareness of and attitudes to renewable energy.
  • Generally awareness of renewables tends to be high (although there is less awareness of options such as biomass.
  • Most people are in favour of renewable energy
  • This said only a third of respondents said they would be happy to live within 5km of a wind farm
  • However, those that actually DO live near to a renewable energy installations are most in favour of renewables, suggesting that exposure to renewables actually increases support
  • Those living near traditional power plants are also particularly in favour of renewables.
  • The national media tend to be more in favour of renewables than the local media.