What are the possible futures for the UK retail industry in 2022, in particular FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) retail, and what are the implications for sustainable development?

Forum for the Future, supported by Tesco and Unilever, is conducting a wide-ranging futures exercise to answer these questions. The project will deliver four scenarios for how the UK retail sector might look in 15 years time, and then use these to help guide sustainable development strategies in the future.

Why are we doing it?

The retail sector is undergoing rapid change at the moment, with recent announcements from major companies representing a step-change in commitment to sustainable development. The context within which the sector operates is also transforming, with changing expectations on business and more and more robust science around environmental pressures.

Retail Futures 2022 will:

• provide a forum for discussion about the nature of these changes and where they could and should go in the future, bringing together people from disparate parts of the retail sector and beyond;
  
• provide a set of robust scenarios for use as tools to test ideas and policies against, and to stimulate future product or format ideas that may contribute to sustainable development;
  
• provide a long-term context for sustainable development strategies in organisations within the retail sector in the UK and for the sector as a whole to consider its future;
  
• provide a vision for what a more sustainable UK retail sector could look like in 2022.
  

How are we doing it?

Consultation for the project comes in two main stages. The first stage is to benchmark 'the state of the art' on where the retail sector is at the moment and to understand the major trends and factors that will influence its development over the next 15 years. This involves desk research, interviews with people within Tesco and Unilever and interviews with people working with and beyond the sector more broadly.

The second stage is to use this information in a series of three workshops to develop four scenarios. The scenarios will describe possible futures for the FMCG retail sector in the UK in 2022. They will not be predictions, but should be plausible, internally consistent and strategically relevant stories about future possibilities; a structured way of asking 'What If?'. The workshops will comprise a mixture of people from across the sector as well as some staff from Tesco and Unilever.

Once the scenarios have been completed, they will be launched at a high profile event and disseminated as widely as possible as tools for creating a more sustainable retail sector in the UK.

For more information about Forum for the Future please visit our website at www.forumforthefuture.org.uk.

For more information about futures work at Forum for the Future, please visit http://www.forumforthefuture.org.uk/future/index.aspx.

For more information about Retail Futures 2022 please contact James Goodman on +44 (0) 20 7324 3661 or j.goodman@forumforthefuture.org.uk or Hugh Knowles on +44 (0) 20 7324 3603 or h.knowles@forumforthefuture.org.uk.

Additional Information

The Food Ethics Council, is also running a separate project over the same time period, looking at future scenarios for UK food distribution. Their work has a different focus from ours, but we are co-operating with them to maximise the insight from both projects.