Energy from biomass: the size of the global resource

This report (Slade R, Saunders R, Gross R and Bauen A (2011). Energy from biomass: the size of the global resource. Imperial College Centre for Energy Policy and Technology and UK Energy Research Centre, London) is well worth reading.  It aims to support informed debate about the amount of biomass that might be available globally for energy, taking account of sustainability concerns. It identifies and discusses over 120 estimates for the future potential of energy from biomass  that have been published over the last 20 years. The assumptions – both technical and ethical – that lie behind these are examined and their influence on calculations of biomass potential described.
 
Note that the report concerns itself with biomass production in general, not with bioenergy.  In this report biomass potential refers to the amount of energy contained in the biomass. The term bio-energy potential is reserved for secondary energy carriers such as electricity after conversion losses have been taken into account.
 
The report does not seek to determine what an acceptable level of biomass production might be. What it does, rather, is show how estimates regarding different potential levels of biomass production vary depending upon our assumptions as to the following conditions (and the interactions between them):

• The global population
• Per capita food consumption and diet.
• Crop productivity increases
• The impacts of climate change on land, water availability and crop yields
• Water availability
• Decisions around nature conservation
• Rates of soil degradation and nutrient availability

The report argues that although biomass potential estimates have been criticised for not using standardised and consistent methodologies, in fact the range in estimates is driven more by the choice of these alternative assumptions than by methodological differences. It also points out that depending on the extent to which biomass production is ipmlemented, the consequences for  global agriculture, forestry and land use; range from a negligible impact to a radical reconfiguration of current practice. The report also examines the insights the literature provides into the interactions between biomass production, conventional agriculture, land use, and forestry.
 
The report presents this very useful table.  It shows the range of estimates as to biomass’ potential  along the left hand side (low potential, medium potentials, high potential) and then looks at the conditions upon which these estimates are based.  For example, in a situation where diets are high in meat, or where agriculture is relatively low-input, and where there are constraints on the expansion of crop land, the potential for bomass production will be limited.  However, where increases in crop productivity are high,  the rate of population growth is at the lower end of the scale, and diets are relatively low in meat products (or there are high rates of deforestation), then the potential for biomass production is high.  Just as a reminder - the analysis is not based on what is or is not desirable, but rather on the conditions within which certain levels of biomass production are possible.

The report emphasises that seeking to predict future global food and biomass supply remains a highly speculative endeavour. There are uncertainties that cannot be resolved, and trade-offs that will always be contested, such as land-use choices and both positive and negative environmental impacts. It argues, however, that the evidence suggests that there is considerable potential to expand biomass before these more contested elements begin to dominate and that doing so could assist understanding of impacts and implications. Policy-making in an area beset by data gaps, scientific uncertainties and ethical debates is necessarily difficult. Moreover, policies related to diet, agriculture and land use are at least as important as those focused on bioenergy per se.
 
It makes the following policy recommendations

• A short run focus on tangible opportunities could expand biomass deployment while
• Addressing sustainability concerns. At a global level concentrating on how the first 100EJ could be made available sustainably would improve understanding of what is possible and the level of effort involved in going to higher levels of biomass use.
• Address key uncertainties through research and experimentation, for example in relation to suitability of so-called marginal and degraded lands, integration of food and biomass for energy systems, implications of energy crops on water use at regional level, and the environmental implications of land use change and related carbon flows.
• Develop environmental and land use regulation and sustainability standards that set biomass for energy, and agricultural systems, on a sustainable path.

 
ScienceDaily covers the report here

Food security and food systems

This interesting paper by FCRN mailing list member John Ingram, makes the important (but often neglected) point that food security is not just an issue of production, but rather an outcome of multiple social, economic and environmental factors, operating at different scales.  It makes the case for a food systems approach to investigating, assessing and addressing food security and suggests a framework for so doing.  Such a framework couldhelp policy makers assess the potential implications of different courses of actions, identify synergies and trade offs among social, economic and other concerns, and ascertain where critical interventions in the system may be needed.
 
Reference and abstract: Ingram J (2011). A food systems approach to researching food security and its interactions with global environmental change Food Sec.DOI 10.1007/s12571-011-0149-9

Abstract

There is growing concern that satisfying societal demand for food over coming decades will be increasingly challenging. Much of the debate centres on increasing food production which has always been–and remains–an important strategy to alleviate food insecurity. However, despite the fact that more than enough food is currently produced per capita to adequately feed the global population, about 925 million people remained food insecure in 2010. Meeting future demand will be further complicated by deleterious changes in climate and other environmental factors (collectively termed ‘global environmental change’, GEC). This paper lays out a case for a food systems approach to research the complex food security/GEC arena and provides a number of examples of how this can help. These include (i) providing a framework for structuring dialogues aimed at enhancing food security and identifying the range of actors and other interested parties who should be involved; (ii) integrating analyses of the full set of food system activities (i.e. producing, storing, processing, packaging, trading and consuming food) with those of the food security outcomes i.e. stability of food access, utilisation and availability, and all their nine elements (rather than only food production); (iii) helping to both assess the impacts of GEC on food systems and identify feedbacks to the earth system from food system activities; (iv) helping to identify intervention points for enhancing food security and analysing synergies and trade-offs between food security, ecosystem services and social welfare outcomes of different adaptation pathways; and (v) highlighting where new research is needed.

In addition to the outbound link on this page, you can download the paper here  together with other papers and reports that adopt a food systems perspective. This includes a full length book on food security and global environmental change: Liverman. Ingram J, Ericksen P and Liverman P (eds). (2010). Food Security and Global Environmental Change Earthscan, which was highlighted in a past FCRN mailing and has been well reviewed here.

FCRN mailing list member blogs on aquaculture

John Forster, an FCRN mailing list member, has written two very interesting articles on aquaculture for the UK Research Councils’ Food Security website www.foodsecurity.ac.uk
 
In the first article, John argues the case for a ‘marine agronomy’. He points out that, on land, we farm and harvest about 6,600mmt per year of plants most (around two thirds) of which we eat directly, much of the rest being fed to farm animals to produce meat and dairy products.  The question for marine aquaculture is therefore: can it become a similarly productive marine agronomy to ease the burden that future human generations will otherwise impose on the land?  To do so, marine plants (macroalgae, or seaweeds) must become the primary crop for food, feed and other applications as we use terrestrial plants instead of the marine animals produced now.
 
The second article looks at aquaculture – the cultivation of fish and other aquatic animals.  He points out that currently, much acquacultural production makes use of feed inputs (such as other fish, or grains) that could directly be consumed by humans.  However, he says that the potential for the large-scale farming of marine plants (macroalgae or seaweeds) is vast. He suggests that decades from now, production of marine biomass for processing into food for people, feed for farm animals and biofuel could equal or exceed the biomass produced by terrestrial agiculture today,  without using land or freshwater and without fossil fuel-based fertilizers.

African agriculture and climate change

A gloomy assessment by Müller C, Cramer W, Hare W L and Lotze-Campen H (2011). Climate change risks for African agriculture PNAS 108, 11 4313–431

Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from −100% to +168% in econometric, from −84% to +62% in process-based, and from −57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

Earthscan/FAO book: The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture

The State of Land and Water Resources (SOLAW) is FAO's first flagship publication on the global status of land and water resources. It is an 'advocacy' report and will be published every three to five years.  The report provides an analysis of: a. the quantity, quality of land and water resources, and b. the rate of use and sustainable management of these resources in the context of relevant socio-economic driving factors and concerns, including food security and poverty, and climate change.

This is the first time that a global, baseline status report on land and water resources has been made. It is based on several global spatial databases (e.g. land suitability for agriculture, land use and management, land and water degradation and depletion). Topical and emerging issues on land and water are dealt with in an integrated rather than sectoral manner. The implications of the status and trends are used to advocate remedial interventions which are tailored to major farming systems within different geographic regions.

For more details see here.

FCRN members may purchase the book directly from the publishers at 20% discount, by entering the discount code AF20 at the checkout.

UK Government publishes Carbon Plan

The UK Government’s Carbon Plan was published in December 2011.  It sets out how government’s proposals and policies for meeting the first four carbon budgets - legally binding limits on the amount of emissions that may be produced in successive five-year periods, beginning in 2008. The first three carbon budgets were set in law in May 2009 and require emissions to be reduced by at least 34% below base year levels in 2020.  The fourth carbon budget, covering the period 2023–27, requires emissions to be reduced by 50% below 1990 levels.

For agriculture, the focus is on encouraging the farming industry to take actions, and on research: “The Government is encouraging practical actions which lead to efficiencies such as improved crop nutrient management and better breeding and feeding practices, which save both money and emissions. The Government is also working to improve its evidence base to better understand what this sector can feasibly deliver in the future. The Government will undertake a review of progress towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture in 2012 which will  assess the impact of existing measures and highlight further policy options. Next spring an independent panel will provide advice on the future direction of forestry and woodland policy in England.”

Food Ethics Council business forum summary: Forecasting the perfect storm: the economics of resource scarcity

The November meeting of the Food Ethics Councils’ Business Forum investigated the ‘perfect storm’ of resource constraints and other challenges facing the food and farming sector.

SDRN debate, launch and reception: Sustainable development and economic growth - challenges for research and evidence

6.00 for 6.30pm start, Tuesday 13th December 2011, Royal Society, 6-9 Carlton House Terrace, London SW1Y 5AG.

This event is being held to mark the launch of a new phase of SDRN that will see the Defra-funded Network run until July 2014.  The focus of the debate is on the research challenges of delivering a green economy. Speakers will include:

• Dimitri Zenghelis, Visiting Senior Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute; Chief Economist at Cisco Climate Change Practice; and Associate Fellow at Chatham House.

• Andrew Raingold, Executive Director of The Aldersgate Group and author of 'Greening the Economy: A strategy for growth, jobs and success';

• Dr. Gemma Harper, Defra’s Chief Social Researcher;

• Prof. Roland Clift, Emeritus Professor of Environmental Technology and founding Director of the Centre for Environmental Strategy at the University of Surrey.

The event will be chaired by the newly-appointed, but as yet unannounced, Chair of the SDRN Advisory Committee. The debate will be followed by a Networking reception to which all are welcome.
 
Spaces are limited: you can register online or by emailing Hilary Salter.
 

French government bans vegetarianism at school

The Telegraph reports that the French government has stated that that all students will have to eat meat if they want lunch at school. Taking a packed lunch is not an alternative as they are also banned.  The ban will shortly be extended to kindergartens, hospitals, prisons, colleges and old people's homes. French agriculture minister, Bruno Lemaire, said in January that the Government's aim for nutrition was to defend the French agricultural model and counter initiatives such as those by vegetarian campaigners like Sir Paul McCartney.